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Alan Taylor

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Alan M. Taylor is a professor of economics and director of the Center for the Evolution of the Global Economy at the University of California, Davis. He is also a Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley.

He read mathematics at King’s College, Cambridge, and received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. His research spans several areas including international trade and macroeconomics, growth, development, and economic history with a focus on global comparative analysis.

He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and a research fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research in London. In 2004 he was awarded a John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Fellowship. In 2009–10 he was a Houblon-Norman/George Fellow at the Bank of England.

His recent publications include a co-edited volume entitled Globalization in Historical Perspective published by The University of Chicago Press (with Michael Bordo and Jeffrey Williamson) and the co-authored books Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis and Growth published by Cambridge University Press (with Maurice Obstfeld), and Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880–1935 published by The University of Chicago Press (with Gerardo della Paolera).

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When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises

Paper Working Paper Series | | Oct 2015

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang.

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences

Paper Working Paper Series | | Feb 2014

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways.

Sovereigns versus banks: Crises, causes and consequences

Article | Oct 18, 2013

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, few would dispute the risks of excessive borrowing. But which debts should one worry about – public or private? This column presents new research on the interplay of public and private debts since 1870 in 17 advanced economies. History demonstrates that excessive private-sector borrowing plays a greater role than fiscal profligacy in generating financial instability. However, when the credit boom collapses, the government’s capacity to alleviate the downturn is limited by the prevailing level of public debt.

When Is the Time for Austerity?

Article | Jul 26, 2013

Recent austerity policies have been guided by ideology rather than research. This column discusses research that reconciles disparate estimates of fiscal multipliers in the literature. It finds that common identification assumptions are problematic. Matching methods based on propensity scores show how contractionary austerity really is, especially in economies operating below potential.

Featuring this expert

Demystifying Modern Monetary Theory (Sample)

Video | Mar 19, 2015

Bill Mitchell presents a coherent analysis of how money is created, how it functions in global exchange rate regimes, and how the mystification of the nature of money has constrained governments, and prevented states from acting in the public interest.