We support dynamic ideas through wide-ranging research that embraces both pure theory and applied work where advances in economics can help solve the great challenges of the 21st century. The Institute’s research is interdisciplinary, incorporating concepts from fields including history, political science, psychology, the physical sciences and the humanities.
We support in-depth, multidisciplinary research that carefully examines the conceptual frameworks of economic thinking. This series focuses on critical areas in the discipline that are relevant right now. View details
The US federal lobbying industry, based in Washington DC, is major focal point for political money and the exercise of influence, with expenditures peaking at approximately $2.5 billion per annum during the first Obama administration.
The current crisis is the culmination of a process of integration that has profoundly changed the structure of each member state, their inter-relations and their power relations. One of its side effects was the rediscovery of the terms ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’ to analyse the economic situations of the European countries.
This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and
the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary
sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns,
we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies,
had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. Firms
supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperforming
unconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These results
are not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimators
and definitions of affiliation.
“The Failure of Democracy” – “The weaknesses of Weimar”
Do headlines such as these suggest that the whole architecture of the first German republic was wrong, that it was doomed right from the start, that the “collapse” was unavoidable?
In the paper that we present this afternoon, Soren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, Morten Tabor, and I introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes.
After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in
stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in-
complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate
its prevalence empirically.